On the London exchange, robusta coffee futures for July 2026 delivery fell by $22 (-0.56%) to $3,906 per ton. The September 2026 contract fell by $91 per ton (-2.4%) to $3,705 per ton; the November 2026 contract fell by $62 per ton (-1.65%) to $3,699 per ton. Prices for other contracts fell by $53-56 per ounce.
On the New York exchange, the price of Arabica coffee for September 2026 delivery fell by 7.25 US cents/pound (-2.29%) to 309.4 US cents/pound; the price for December 2026 delivery fell by 7.25 US cents/pound (-2.39%) to 296.45 US cents/pound; and the March 2026 contract fell by 7 US cents/pound (-2.35%) to 290.55 US cents/pound. Prices for other contracts decreased by 6.55-6.75 cents/pound.The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global coffee production for the 2026-2027 season to increase by 6% to an all-time high, while more favorable weather in Brazil is expected to accelerate harvesting, putting pressure on coffee prices.
According to the recently released USDA report , "Coffee: World Markets and Trade ," global coffee production for the 2026-2027 crop year is projected to reach 189.7 million bags, a 6% increase (equivalent to 10.8 million bags) compared to the previous crop year and the highest level ever recorded.
Specifically, arabica production is projected to increase by 12%, reaching a new record high thanks to more favorable growing conditions in Brazil, while robusta production is expected to decrease slightly by 0.7% but remain at a very high level. The USDA also forecasts global ending inventories to increase by approximately 1.9 million bags, to 26.3 million bags, reflecting improved global supply.
Previously, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the USDA also projected Brazil's coffee production for the 2026-2027 crop year to reach 71.9 million bags, an increase of about 14% compared to the previous crop year and a record high.
In addition to supply prospects, the market is also under pressure from forecasts of dry weather in Brazil's coffee-growing regions in the coming days, a factor expected to help speed up the harvest after weeks of disruption caused by rain.
However, the actual harvesting progress is still significantly slower than in previous years. Bartchart Citing information from Cooxupé, Brazil's largest coffee purchasing organization, It is known that, as of July 17th, members had harvested only 47.3% of the target, lower than the 59% achieved during the same period last year.
Meanwhile, consulting firm Safras & Mercado reported that , as of July 15th, only 64% of the Brazilian coffee harvest for the 2026/27 season was complete, lower than the 77% of the previous year and below the five-year average of 70%.
Inventory trends on the ICE exchange continue to create a divergence between the two types of coffee.
For robusta, ICE-monitored inventories rose to 4,254 lots on Wednesday – the highest level in about four months – before slightly decreasing to 4,200 lots on Thursday. The continued replenishment of supply is putting further pressure on robusta prices.
Conversely, ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to 315,883 bags, the lowest level in about 2.25 years, which somewhat limited the decline in arabica prices.
In the medium and long term, the market is closely monitoring the risk of El Niño affecting Brazil's next coffee crop.
According to the coffee trading company Commercial, if the El Niño phenomenon causes rain in September and October to arrive later than usual, the flowering process of coffee plants could be affected, thereby reducing the production prospects for the next crop year.
Previously, the US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) stated that the newly formed El Niño over the equatorial Pacific Ocean had the potential to develop into one of the strongest in over 75 years, increasing the risk of droughts, floods, and extreme weather events in many coffee-producing regions of South America and Asia.